摘要
本文应用时变经济"自然率"条件下的新凯恩斯模型对我国总供给曲线进行估计,并且对其动态性进行实证分析。研究结果表明,总供给曲线所描述的通货膨胀率与产出缺口变动关系与我国宏观经济态势的发展相吻合;产出缺口是通货膨胀率变动的Granger原因,并且产出缺口对通货膨胀率的影响具有时变性和非对称性特征;总供给曲线作用下的月度环比和同比通货膨胀率适度水平分别近似为0.35%和4.28%。
In this paper,we estimate the aggregate supply curve with new Keynesian model based on time-varying economy ＂natural rate＂,and make an analysis on its dynamic character.It shows that the relationship of inflation rate and output gap of aggregate supply curve is consistent with the development of macro-economic situation in China.The output gap is the Granger reason of inflation rate changes,and the effect of output gap on inflation rate is time-varying and asymmetric.The moderate levels of the two kinds of inflation rate based on aggregate supply curve approximate to 0.35% and 4.28% respectively.
出处
《现代财经（天津财经大学学报）》
CSSCI
北大核心
2011年第7期86-93,共8页
Modern Finance and Economics：Journal of Tianjin University of Finance and Economics
基金
教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地重大课题研究资助项目(05JJD790006)
国家社科基金资助项目(06BGJ021)
关键词
总供给曲线
经济“自然率”
新凯恩斯模型
aggregate supply curve
economy ＂natural rate＂
new Keynesian model
