通货膨胀的门限效应与金融—经济增长关系——基于中国数据的经验研究

Inflation Threshold Effect and Finance-Growth Nexus:Evidence from China

在探讨金融与经济增长关系的研究中,一个重要的研究问题就是金融发展与经济增长之间关系是否取决于通货膨胀的水平。基于门限效应回归模型,本文利用中国1952年至2008年的年度数据将通货膨胀作为门限变量进行了实证研究。研究结果表明金融发展与中国的经济增长之间存在着统计意义上显著的非线性关系,通货膨胀处于门限值以下金融发展促进经济增长,而通货膨胀超过门限值金融发展则不再显著地促进经济增长。这启示我们强调金融发展的增长效应时,政策制定者需要将通货膨胀率保持在其发生结构性变化水平以内。

In the discussion of the relationship between financial development and economic growth, an important issue is the existence of the inflation threshold effect in this relationship. Based on a threshold regression model, using the yearly data from 1952 to 2008, our paper investigates the existence of this inflation threshold effect. The empirical results imply the existence of a nonlinear relationship between financial development and China＇ s economic growth when setting the inflation as the threshold variable. When inflation is below the threshold, financial development has a positive effect on China＇ s economic growth. By comparison, when inflation is above the threshold, the growth promoting effect of financial development appears to be insignificant. From a policy implication perspective, the growth promoting effect of financial development is only valid when the inflation rate is controlled in a structural efficient level.