湖南农村金融与经济增长关系的实证分析

An Empirical Analysis of the Relations between Hunan Rural Finance and Economic Growth

采用格兰杰因果检验和协整方法对湖南农村金融发展与经济增长之间的关系进行实证检验,研究表明,1987-2008年间,存在农村真实货币余额增长率(M/P)、存款利率(R)、乡镇企业贷款(FL)三个因素的协整关系,其中农村真实货币余额增长率、乡镇企业贷款对农林牧渔业总产值的存在因果关系,其他序列与农林牧渔业总产值则不存在因果关系,同时利用回归分析对三因素进行定量分析。这说明湖南农村金融深化、农业借贷能在一定程度上促进农村经济的增长。

This paper adopted the Granger causality test and co-integration method to analyze the relationship between the Hunan rural finance and economic growth empirically. The research demonstrated the existence of co-integration from 1997 to 2008 in the rural real money balances growth rate （M/P） ,the deposit rates （R） and the township enterprise loan （FL） ,among which the M/P and the FL could affect the gross output of the agriculture,forestry,animal husbandry and fishery but the other can＇t. Besides, based on regressive analysis, this paper accomplished the quantitative analysis about the three factors. These testified that deepening rural financial and the agricultural loan could facilitate the rural economic growth in certain degree in Hunan province.