基于灰色理论的渔业经济发展因素影响力评价

Evaluation on the fishery economy development factors' impact based on the gray theory

论文运用灰色关联和GM(1,1)预测模型,以福建省渔业经济发展为例,建立了渔业经济发展因素影响力评价模型。研究表明:2002～2009年间,福建省渔业经济快速发展的重要促进因素有资本投入、科技水平、水产品生产情况、劳动力数量投入;环境污染和自然灾害的负面作用对渔业经济发展的阻碍效应不明显;在现有发展基础上,福建省渔业经济发展将呈现平稳上升的变化趋势。根据研究结论,论文认为应该在资金投人、科研引进、环境保护和名优品种养殖等方面重点投入,逐步实现形成渔业经济的可持续发展。

By using the gray theory and GM（1,1） model, represemea by fishery economy development in Fujian province, establish the model of evaluation on the impact of factors of fishery economy development. Studies have showed that, the most important factors to promote fast development of fishery economy are investment, technological level, aquatic products production and the amount of laborer from 2002 to 2009; the negative effect of environmental pollution and natural disasters for development is not obvious; the trend of fishery economy will change steady on the basis of the existing pattern. According to the conclusions, the papers get some suggestions that expanding investment, technological input, Environmental Protection and raising quality varieties are the essential approach sustainable development of fishery economy.