基于灰色动态模型的我国水产品产量预测

A forecast of the aquatic products in China based on model of GM(1,1)

随着社会经济的发展,人们对优质水产蛋白的需求不断增长,专家推测到2020年我国水产品总产量需达到5740万吨才能保持现有人均水产品占有量水平(35.9kg)。因此,保证水产品产量的稳定增长显得尤为重要,根据1990年以来的我国水产品年产量,选取两个典型时间段水产品年产量数据,利用灰色动态模型GM(1,1)建立两个时间序列微分方程,预测我国未来十年的水产品产量,并对两个时间模型的可靠性和准确性进行分析。结果表明:据模型1预测2020年我国水产品总产量可能的产量达1亿吨;据模型2预测的水产品总产量7813万吨。根据灰色理论的基本原理,灰平面的均线值为9068万吨,是预测的可信值。

With the increase of social and economic development, people demand for high quality fish protein is growing. Experts predict that by 2020 China＇s output of aquatic products reach 57.4 million tons in order to meet the per capita share of aquatic products with the current level. Therefore, it is particularly important that how to ensure the steady growth of aquatic products. According to the annual output of aquatic products in China since 1990, two time response equations（Model 1 ＆Model 2） were established by GM（1,1）, then we forecasted the future of China＇s aquatic products for years, and analyzed the reliability and accuracy of the two model. The results indicated that the two time series model can be used for long-term forecast, and the accuracy of model 2 is better than model 1. According to the basic theory of GM, the true value of the next decade of aquatic products should be lower than the average value of gray plane. And the results provide evidence for planning fisheries development.