采用Markoy模型的输电线路及绝缘子运行风险评估

Operating Risk Assessment for Transmission and Line Insulators Using Markov Model

作为解决随机概率过程的经典理论,马尔可夫模型在电力工程领域运用较少,尤其是应用马尔可夫过程来预测输电线路及绝缘子的运行状况及发生污秽闪络和其它故障概率的定量计算,国内外学者还鲜有相关方面研究。为此,建立了基于马尔可夫过程的输电线路绝缘子运行状态评估模型,包括马尔可夫过程状态转移图和马尔可夫过程矩阵。以湖北省2001-2005年500 kV输电线路故障的运行经验数据为例,计算出相应的故障率λk和修复率μk,并且将其代入马尔可夫模型矩阵方程计算得出该省线路的可靠性以及各类不可用(故障)状态的全态概率pi;利用所建立状态评估模型,计算出湖北省2001-2005年500 kV输电线路的全态可靠性参数,平均无故障时间tfs和平均修复时间trs分别为81.67%、0.9656 a和0.2167 a。

As a classical theory for solving the statistic problems, the Markov model has been rarely used in the field of power engineering, especially in the prediction of operation conditions and quantitative calculation for failure prob- ability of transmission lines （insulators}, where pollution flashover and other failures may occur. We established a state assessment model of transmission lines {insulators） on the basis of the Markov process, including the Markov process state transition diagrams and Markov process matrix. The 500 kV transmission lines＇ empirical operation data.of Hubel Province from 2001 to 2005 were used to compute the failure rateλk and repair rateμk as an example. Faiiure rate μk and repair rate μk are imported into the Markov model matrix equation to compute the reliability of transmission lines and a variety probability p, of unavailable or failure state in Hubei Province. Using the established assessment model, we can calculate the whole state reliability parameters of 500 kV transmission lines t the average available time time and mean repair time in Hubei Province from 2001 to 2005.