二元经济下的中国城乡收入差距的动态演化研究

Study on the Dynamic Evolution Process of Urban-rural Income Gap in the Chinese Dual Economy

本文重点考察了二元经济环境下,城乡收入差距长期的动态演化过程,影响城乡收入差距的机制在于人力资本回报和实物资本回报相对大小的长期动态调整过程。虽然,在时间序列上,全国收入的基尼系数呈现倒U型趋势,但是城乡收入差距却一直表现出持续扩大的趋势,只有依靠非市场化的财政转移(税收)才能出现城乡收入差距倒U型的长期动态演化规律。全国性的教育均等化政策和放松资本市场借贷约束政策并不会有效的降低城乡收入差距,只有在农村单独实施上述两个政策才能有效的降低城乡收入差距,并且这些政策在高人力资本回报的经济发展阶段更加有效。

The paper mainly focus on the dynamic evolution process of urban-rural income gaps in the Chinese dual economy. This evolution process is affected largely by the relative size between human capital return and physical capital return. Even though the income Gini coefficient in China shows an inverse-U-shape, the urban- rural income gaps are continued to widen. The gaps will not show an inverse-U-shape unless imposing a finan- cial transfer payment by tax policy. Besides, the gaps will not be shortened significantly by the policies of im- proving basic education level and loosening borrowing constraint in the country. Only by carrying out these two policies in rural area, can the income gaps be shortened. Finally, the paper points out that these policies are more efficient during the economic stage of higher human capital return.