中国农业温室气体减排潜力及其政策意涵

Reduction Potential and Policy Control of Chinese Agro-Greenhouse Gas Emissions

通过农业温室气体减排GTAP-E模型及其数据库构建,模拟了中国农业温室气体减排潜力及其政策意涵,其结论为:农业温室气体减排5%,我国GDP将降低0.059%,社会福利将提高11.6亿美元;水稻的价格上升22.08%,其他农作物价格上升2.9%;牛羊类的价格上升163.43%,猪禽类的价格上升0.57%,其他畜产品价格下降0.98%。农业温室气体减排5%降低了我国农产品在国际市场上的竞争力,使得农产品的出口大大下降,但是却提高了其他部门的出口,导致我国净出口增加了45.5亿美元,农业征收排放税的税收收入为223.11亿美元。

By constructing the model of GTAP-E of reduction potential and policy control of Chinese agro-greenhouse gas emissions and its data base,this paper simulated the reduction potential and policy control of Chinese agro-greenhouse gas emissions.The result showed by 5% reduction,China＇s GDP would be reduced 0.059%,social welfare would be increased 1.16 billion U.S.D.22.08% and 2.9%increases in the price of rice and other crops were estimated,The price of cattle and sheep increased by 163.43%,the price of pigs and poultry increased by 0.57%,other livestocks price fell 0.98%.By 5% reduction,would significantly weaken the competitiveness of agricultural products in international market,and cut down its export,but would increase exports in other sectors,resulting in China＇s net exports increased by 4.55 billion U.S.D.Agricultural emission taxes would be imposed 22.311 billion U.S.D.