锦州地区一次先后受两个天气系统影响的暴雨天气分析

Study of One Rainstorm Weather Being Affected by Two Weather System in Jinzhou Area

[目的]分析一次先后受2个天气系统影响的暴雨天气过程。[方法]2010年8月19~22日锦州地区先后受高空槽和蒙古冷锋、高空槽和副热带高压后部切变线影响而产生暴雨天气,为了分析思路清晰,分为前后2个降水阶段,结合降水情况、天气形势、卫星云图、数值预报产品等方面,对此次暴雨天气过程进行分析。[结果]此次暴雨天气过程由前后2个降水阶段,前一阶段降水主要受高空槽和地面蒙古冷锋影响,后一阶段降水主要受高空槽和副热带高压后部切变影响;高空冷空气、低空切变线、低空急流、副热带高压及其相互之间的耦合作用是造成这次暴雨天气的主要影响系统和原因。云图分析发现,在水汽通道的对流云带上不断有对流云团发展、减弱、消亡、再生成发展,呈现出明显的列车状运行状态,云图呈现的加强和减弱与实况降水非常吻合。数值预报产品对产生暴雨的高空、地面形势预报较为准确,特别是副高东退南落趋势预报准确;欧洲中心预报场形势与实况吻合较好,T639的形势预报有一定偏差,降水预报指示作用较好。[结论]该研究为以后做好此类天气的气象服务工作提供依据。

[Objective] The aim was to study one rainstorm weather process being affected by two weather system.[Method] Influenced by high trough and Mongolia cold front,high latitude trough and subtropical high shear,rainstorm occurred in Jinzhou from October 19 to 22 in 2010.In order to make the analysis clear,there were two precipitation stages.Considering precipitation,weather situation,satellite image and numerical forecast,the rainstorm process was discussed.[Result] There were two raining stages during this precipitation.The first stage was affected by high altitude trough and ground Mongolia cold front,and the last stage was influenced by high altitude trough and subtropical high shear;the high latitude air,low latitude shear,low air torrent,subtropical high and their mutual coupling effect were the main influencing system and cause for this rainstorm.Satellite image suggested that there was convective cloud developing,weakening,disappearing and regenerating around the convective cloud of water vapor passage,showing distinct train operation state.The strengthening and weakening cloud image fitted the real precipitation.Numerical forecast precisely predicted the upper air and ground situation of the generation of rainstorm,especially the report of the east-retreating and south-falling trend of subtropical high;European center forecast fitted reality.There was certain error in predicting T639.Precipitation forecast was fine.[Conclusion] The study provided basis for the meteorological service work in future.