土地利用规划中人口预测模型研究

Study on Population Forecast Model in Planning of Land Use

在描述人口自然增长模型、加权平均增长模型、回归预测模型和GM（1,1）预测模型的特点和适用条件的基础上,以河南省固始县为例,依据1991~2007年《固始县统计年鉴》中的人口统计资料数据,分别建立4组模型对其人口变化情况进行拟合,同时预测2008~2009年人口规模对其进行精度验证。分析检验结果显示,人口自然增长模型预测结果精度不高,加权平均增长模型在人口总规模不稳定时预测结果不科学,GM（1,1）模型和回归模型的结果与实际数据符合程度较好,可采用两者的平均值作为最终预测结果。

On the basis of describing characteristics and condition of application of natural growth model of population,weighted average growth model,regression forecast model and GM（1,1）forecast model,taking Gushi County in Henan Province as an example,according to the statistics of population in Gushi County Statistical Yearbook from 1991 to 2007,we establish four models to conduct fitting on population change respectively,and meanwhile,we predict population scale from 2008 to 2009 and conduct preciseness test on the population scale.The test results show that the preciseness of forecast results of natural growth model is not high,and the preciseness of forecast results of weighted average growth model is not scientific when the total scale of population is unstable.The results of GM（1,1）forecast model and regression forecast model largely conform to the actual data,so we can take the mean of the two as the final forecast result.