三峡水库汛限水位动态控制可行性研究

Feasibility Study on the Dynamic Control of Flood Control Level for Three Gorges Reservoir

应用实际观测资料,分析三峡水库水文气象预报精度和长江上游来沙量,研究三峡水库实施汛限水位动态控制的可行性。结果表明,三峡水库入库洪水1 d、2 d、3 d预报精度均达到甲级标准;其区间流域未来24 h、48 h无雨和小雨预报信息可以用于实时调度;与1961年～1970年系列相比,2003年～2009年系列各站年均来沙量减少44.32%～86.84%。这些为实施汛限水位动态控制创造了必要条件。

The hydro-meteorological forecast accuracy and the amount of sediment were analyzed by using measured data to explore the feasibility of dynamic control of reservoir flood control level for Three Gorges Reservoir. The results show that the 1-3 d inflow prediction accuracies of flood all reach the standard of Grade A, the no or light rainfall forecast for the future 24 h and 48 h in the Three Gorges Reservoir basin can be used in real-time operation of reservoir, and the average annual sediment flowing into reservoir is reduced by 44.32%-86.84% during 2003-2009 compared with the value in 1961-1970. The results create necessary conditions for the dynamic control of flood control level.