基于灰色关联理论的农业投资和农民收入变迁研究

Research on the change of the agriculture investment and farmers,net income based on grey relevancy theory

运用灰色关联理论,通过灰色关联分析,对我国"六五"至"十五"期间农民纯收入与各项收入、农业总投资与各项农业投资、农民纯收入与各项农业投资的灰色关联度变迁情况进行研究。结果表明,家庭经营纯收入仍然是影响农民人均纯收入的最主要因素,工资性收入对农民收入的影响程度逐渐增强,但农民收入非农化的特征并不显著。国家财政用于农业的支出和农村居民个人固定资产投资是影响农民收入增长的最重要因素。指出强化政府和金融机构在农业投资中的核心地位,充分发挥其带动和优势作用,有利于促进农民增收,并提出相关的政策建议。

Using grey relevancy theory and the grey relational analysis method,this paper analyzed the change of grey relational grad of farmers,net income and its parts,the aggregate agriculture investment and its components,farmers,net income and the various agriculture investment from the Sixth Five-Year plan period to the Tenth Five-Year plan period.The results showed that income from household operations was still the most important factor affecting the farmers,net income.The effect degree of income from wages and salaries on the income of farmers improves gradually.But the deagriculturalization of the income of farmers was not remarkable.The agriculture expenditure of the financial and the country dweller individual investment in fixed assets were the most important factors affecting the growth of farmers,income.Strengthening the core of the government and financial institutions in the agriculture investment and playing their leading and dominant role will be propitious to increase farmers,income.At the end of the paper,it puts forward the relevant policy suggestions.