基于耕地压力状况的珠江三角洲地区粮食安全战略选择

Strategy of food security under pressure conditions of cultivated land in the Pearl River Delta

1966年以来,珠三角粮食生产总体滑坡,自给能力有限,供给以外源为主。然而未来国内外粮食供给趋紧,低水平的自给为主、外源为辅策略成为珠三角的现实选择,即保证80%的户籍人口得到人均年250 kg的生存性粮食需求,保证60%的户籍人口得到人均年350 kg的温饱性粮食需求。条件是:以2008年为基期,到2020年,耕地复种指数年均提高2%,粮食播种比例年均提高5%,单产年均提高3%,耕地年均减少规模不高于0.74万hm2。

Food production is decreseing in the Pearl River Delta from 1996.Self-sufficient ration is very low and food is mainly buied or imported from elsewhere.However,food market conditions is becoming worse,so food must be supplied mianly by region itself.Strategy objectives are to rasie self-sufficient ration to 80 percent under food demanding level of 250 kg or 60 percent under food demanding level of 350 kg for census register.Prerequisites are to raise multiple-crop index 2 percent per year,to increase ratio of grain planting 5 percent per year,to raise yield per hectare 3 percent per year,and cultivated land decrease less than 7.4 thousand hm2 ha per year compared with 2008.