厦门市能源消费对环境及公共健康影响研究

The impacts of energy consumption on the environment and public health in Xiamen City

由能源消费排放的多种大气污染物对环境和公共健康的影响越来越严重.以厦门市为研究案例,应用LEAP模型、剂量效应(Doseeffective)和暴露-响应(Exposure-response)原理构建能源-环境-公共健康模型,计算厦门市不同情景下主要大气污染物PM10和SO2排放量和由这两种污染物引发的公共健康经济损失,最后分析了公共健康损失同其驱动因子的关系.研究结果显示:随着经济的发展,能源消费引起的PM10和SO2排放及公共健康损失仍会持续增加,不过通过降低经济发展速度来抑制污染物排放及公共健康经济损失并不可取.只有积极实施各种节能措施、控制人口增长才能有效地降低能源消费引起的污染物排放和公共健康损失.

Many air pollutants generated as a by-product of energy consumption have an increasingly serious effect on the environment and public health.Taking Xiamen City as a case study,the methods of the LEAP model,Dose effective function and Exposure-response function were used to build a model of energy-environment-public health.The primary air pollutant emissions of PM10 and SO2 and economic losses of damage to public health caused by the concentration of these pollutants were calculated.Then the relationship between public health and its driving factors was analyzed.The results show that the PM10 and SO2 emissions and public health damage will continue to increase,but slowing down the pace of economic development is not a suitable way to control emissions and public health damage.Only by implementing measures of energy saving and population control,could the emissions related to energy consumption be effectively reduced.