一种研究网络论坛上舆论演化的新方法

A New Approach to Research the Evolution of Public Opinion in BBS

在网络论坛上,以某一话题为中心的网络舆论已经成为影响人们生活,甚至政府决策的重要因素.话题的参与者以论坛的方式组合在一起,通过相互之间信息的交互,逻辑上形成动态变化的系统.由于人类本身的适应性(对环境的适应),从而造成该系统的错综复杂,谁都无法把握该系统的发展.为此,引入复杂适应性系统的思想和方法,通过对基于论坛的网络舆论的分析,将影响该类网络舆论形成、发展的几个重要因素进行规则化.以CAS理论来构建基于论坛的网络舆论系统并研究其演化,并利用Swarm平台对该系统进行实现.实验仿真结果表明CAS理论能够有效地研究基于论坛的网络舆论,为进一步研究互联网上的网络舆论提供新的方法.

The public opinion in the BBS and concentrated on a certain topic has been one of important factors to influence people＇s life, and even the government＇s decision. The people involved in the topic have formed a dynamic system that depends on the BBS and the interchange of information. Because the adaptive of human （to environment）, the system is complex so that nobody can accurately predict its development. In this paper, the Complex Adaptive System （CAS） is introduced into our research. Moreover, depended on the analysis of public opinion in BBS, some important factors have been turned into the rules to build up a CAS-based system and study its evolution. At last, we use the Swarm platform originated from SFI （Santa Fe Institute） to simulate the system. From the result, It can been seen that the CAS is efficient to study the public opinion in the BBS, which bring to a new approach to research the Internet public opinion further.