基于NRCA的中国省际能源利用评价研究

A STUDY ON EVALUATION OF ENERGY CONSUMPTION IN CHINA BASED ON NRCA MODEL

利用历年中国能源统计年鉴相关数据,运用NRCA计算各地区各部门能源资源利用的规模、效益优势指数和比较优势度,经分类时空分异分析提出:人口、能源资源禀赋、经济发展水平及用能效率是中国生产用能比较优势的驱动因子;城市化发展水平是生活用能比较优势的主要影响因素。此外,农业用能优势区域为四川、湖北、安徽、广西、云南、海南和吉林等地;工业用能的规模优势区域主要分布在河北、山西、河南和江苏等地;建筑业用能优势区域主要分布在黑龙江、河南和江西等地区。第三产业用能优势区域主要分布在长江中游地区和东部沿海地带。分析结果证实了NRCA在能源资源优势评价的可行性。

According to the data of energy consumption from 30 Provinces of China since 1985 and the comparative advantage indices（CAI）,the scale advantage indices（SAI）and the benefit advantage indices（BAI） were calculated with the normalized revealed comparative advantage index（NRCA）model.Through analysis of clustering and spatial-temporal differences from the statistical data of 30 provinces,we found that the driving factors which brought on the fluctuation of CAI of productive energy utilization,were population,energy resource,economic development level as well as energy utilization benefit;and that of residential water was urbanization level.The results showed that the superiority regions of agricultural production energy-using were in Sichuan,Hubei,Anhui,Guangxi,Yunnan,Hainan and Jilin etc;the superiority regions of industrial production energy-using were in Hebei,Shanxi,Henan and Jiangsu etc;and the superiority regions of building energy utilization were in Heilongjiang,Henan and Jiangxi etc,and the superiority regions of tertiary industrial production energy-using were in the eastern part and the middle reaches area of the Yangtze River.The results show the feasibility of NRCA method in energy resources advantage assessment.