人民币升值能改变中国的贸易顺差吗

Can Chinese Trade surplus Be Reduced through Appreciation of the RMB?

本文使用非线性平滑转换模型研究了人民币升值对我国贸易顺差的动态影响,研究发现在样本时期内非线性模型能更好地拟合两者的动态关系,在非线性条件下,当期人民币升值将会使贸易顺差增加,前两期人民币升值将会导致当期贸易顺差减少,人民币升值对贸易顺差的影响表现出很强的非线性门限特征。人民币汇率对贸易差额影响的时间路径像是一个"倒J-曲线"。2000年以来人民币汇率虽然一直在发挥着降低贸易顺差的作用,但是,人民币汇率不是贸易顺差形成的主要原因。

The essay establishes nonlinear smooth transition model and studies dynamic nonlinear relation- ship between exchange rate and trade balance. It as well as illustrates the flndings of the study in the following aspects. Nonlinear model is better than linear model for fitting the relation between exchange rate and trade balance. The Chinese currency has gained 1 percent against the dollar, trade balance will has a in- creasing of 0.945% ; The Chinese currency has gained 1 percent against the dollar, two lags Chinese currency has gained 1 percent against the dollar, trade balance will has a decreasing of 1.3579%. The path effects of Chinese currency on trade balance is like reverse J- curve. Since 2000, Chinese eurrcney has been playing a role on reducing trade balance, but, Chinese currency is the reason of large trade surpluses.