通货膨胀基本结构及其货币政策调控反思

The Basic Components of Inflation and Reflection on the Control of Monetary Policy

利用向量误差修正模型研究发现,我国通货膨胀是在公众预期主导下,由生产部门成本推动与消费部门需求拉动所造成,并在一定程度上表现出结构性特征。以抑制银行系统流动性为核心的政策操作,在抑制通货膨胀预期上存在局限性,因而迫切需要调整。中国人民银行若能充分发挥利率非对称性调节的力度,显著提高人民币汇率弹性,积极引入货币政策规则,就能在优化信贷结构并改善供给效率的同时,锚定公众预期并有效抑制通货膨胀的抬头。

article uses vector error correction model to carry on studies and find that China＇ s inflation is dominated by the public expectations, caused by the cost- push from the upstream sector and the demand - pull from the downstream sector. Even to some extent, the inflation shows structural features; Current monetary policy is to curb excess liquidity existing in banking system as a core task, so it has some limitalions on the elimination of inflation expectations and need to be adjusted; If the people＇ s bank of China can give full play to the asymmetric adjustment of interest rate, significantly enhance the flexibility of RMB exchange rate, actively introduce monetary policy rules, it can optimize the credit structure, improve the supply efficiency, anchor the public expectation, and effectively restrain the emergence of inflation at the same time.