我国太阳能光伏技术扩散预测研究

The Prediction of Technology Diffusion of Solar PV in China

太阳能光伏的利用和商业化已经受到世界各国的重视，本文以太阳能光伏技术为研究对象，以IJogis酏模型为基础，估算我国2010年之前太阳能光伏市场最大经济可开发量。并预测加10。2030年间太阳能光伏技术扩散趋势。结果表明，太阳能光伏技术发展呈曲折上升趋势，2009年太阳能光伏发电最大经济可开发量达25379．13兆瓦，但实际仅利用1．2％。2020年我国太阳能光伏市场开发率也将达到12％，2030年我国太阳能光伏市场开发率将达到59％之多，这对于缓解我国“电荒”有重大意义。我国太阳能资源丰富且前景广阔，政府应加大重视太阳能资源在光伏领域的应用及投入，以提高太阳能资源的市场价值。

The utilization and commereiulization of solar PV have been focused by many countries. Based on the Logistic model, tiffs paper aims to estimate the maximum development economically of solar PV market before 2010, and forecast the trend of technology diffusion from 2010 to 2030 in China. The result shows that there is an upward trend in FV technology. In 2009, the mafimum development eeonomically of solar PV market is 25379.13 megawatt, but the actual use is only 1.2%. the rate of market development will up to 12% in 2020 and 59% in 2030 respectively. 1＇his will contribute greatly to release the electricity shortage in China. Thus, Chinese government should pay attention to the inveslment and application in PV to improve the market value of solar energy resources.