论我国房地产市场预警系统的建立

The Analysis on How to Establish an Early-warning System in China's Real Estate Market

建立房地产市场预警系统有助我们在恰当的时候采用正确的房地产宏观调控措施促进房地产市场健康发展。本文将房价收入比、房价租金比、租金收入比、房地产价格增长率与GDP增长率之比、商品房空置率5个指标作为房地产市场预警统计指标,并对它们的预警区间做出界定,然后根据每个指标的统计数据,确定警兆的警级,结合警兆的重要性进行加权综合,综合成一个指数,这样就可以用一组类似于交通信号灯的标志把当前的房地产市场状态直观地表达出来,用以判断房地产市场过热或衰退的程度,来制定房地产宏观调控的方向。

In order to regulate the Chinese real estate market at the right time and promote its healthy development, it is necessary for us to establish an early- warning system. This article chooses five indicators, including the ratio of real estate prices to income, the ratio of real estate prices to housing rents, the ratio of housing rents to income, the ratio of real estate price growth rate to GDP growth rate and housing vacancy rate, as the statistical indicators of the early- wanting system. And we will define the range of these five statistical indicators. Based on previous changes in statistical indexes, we should determine the level of the warning. According to the importnee of warning signs, we would combine multiple indicators into an imegrated index and use a set of signs similar to traffic sigutls to express intuitively the curent state of the real estate market. On these grounds, we can determine the degree d overheating or recession of the real etate market and make the direction of maemeeonomic regulation of real estate