东亚多边安全合作机制:问题与构想

A Multilateral Security Cooperation Framework for Northeast Asia: Problems and Considerations

自冷战结束以来,东亚建立多边安全合作机制的努力要么濒于失效,要么无果而终,要么沦为"清谈馆"。东亚多边安全机制建设失败的原因,主要是区域内军事大国未能合作承担起领导责任,致使每个机制都缺乏权威性。当一个地区安全机制缺乏权威时,它就没有行动能力。一个成功的多边安全合作机制需要同时具备四个条件:一是以军事实力作为领导力的基础;二是初始成员不多但具有广泛代表性;三是有充分的利益代表性且有明确的规模界限;四是议题有严格限定、不轻易扩大合作领域。"中美俄+东盟"安全合作机制可能是最符合这四个条件的构想,其中,美中俄三个军事大国的合作可提供足够的军事保障能力,该机制中的四方基本可代表东亚多种安全利益,较少的创始者可提高机制的合作效率。

Since the end of the Cold War, efforts to establish a multi-lateral security cooperation framework in East Asia have either been ineffective, have been prematurely aborted, or have developed into nothing more than ＂official talk-shops＂. The primary reason for the failure of East Asia to build a multi-lateral security framework is that the major military powers in the region have not been able to cooperate in bearing the region＇s security leader- ship responsibility. As a result, all proposed frameworks have lacked legitimacy, rendering them incapable of taking action on security issues. A successful multi-lateral security cooperation framework must meet four requirements： （1） it must be established on the basis of military power; （2） Initial membership must be broadly representative, although not necessarily consist of a great number of states; （3） it should be sufficiently representative of interests, and have a well defined scope; （4） Its purpose should be strictly defined and limited, and the contexts of the cooperation should not be easily expanded. The proposed ＂China, US, Russia plus ASEAN＂ security framework likely best meets these criteria. As major military powers, China, the US and Russia can provide sufficient military guarantees, while ASEAN can basically represent the security interests of East Asia. At the same time, this represents a relatively small number of initiators, ensuring the efficiency of cooperation.