化工园区初始火灾爆炸引发连锁事故概率研究

Probability of the chain-fire accidents originated from the explosion in chemical industry parks

通过对化工园区特有石油产品储罐的火灾爆炸形式以及事故多米诺效应的分析,建立引起火灾爆炸连锁事故的池火和蒸汽云爆炸模型。基于MATLAB技术,绘制基于这两个模型的热辐射-距离曲线和冲击波-距离曲线,同时根据设备损坏概率模型绘制超压-损坏概率曲线和热辐射-损坏概率曲线。基于两组曲线的拟合,计算初次火灾爆炸影响范围内其他储罐群发生二次事故的概率。实例分析表明,事故危险源及可能波及的目标危险源的物理、化学性质和相应贮存装置地理位置、强度等,对连锁事故发生的概率有直接影响,而且相互影响的概率之间有一定的对应关系。对应关系不同或发生事故顺序不同,引发连锁事故的概率也不同。因此基于多米诺连锁效应分析,采取有针对性的防控措施,阻断连锁反应路径,可减少损失。

The paper is inclined to present a simulated model for pre- dicting the probability of chain-fire accidents caused by the explosion in chemical industry parks based on the analysis of the fire and explo- sion liability of the oil tanks over there. Careful study of the Domino Effect of the accidents helps us to confirm that the main physical effects of the chain accidents taking place in such parks are the explosion of incontrollable vapor clouds and the pool fires. To make the problem clearer, we have drawn the curves of the shock-waves in re- lation with the accident distance and the heat radiation with the distance by using MATLAB technology. At the same time, we have also worked out the probability curve of the overpressure with the damage, and that of the heat radiation with the damage. The fitting of the two groups of curves has enabled us to establish the connection between the objective hazardous sources affected and the original hazardous sources themselves, which may in tuna promote the building-up of the connection between the hazardous material sources with the original hazardous sources, that is, the probability matrixes, on the basis of which we have worked out the accident probabilities of the hazardous oil tanks in a given affected field of the fire and the explosion. In so doing, it is possible for us to deduce the likely chain effects and the probability of the accidents in advance, which enabled us to prepare essential preventive methods. The example analysis shows that the probability of the chain accidents can be affected by the physical and chemical properties of the hazardous material sources in the field, the geographical location and the solidness of the container of the materi- al. Corresponding relationship of the accident probabilities has been established with the MATLAB. Differences of the correspondent rela- tionship or the accident order may in turn lead to the difference of the probabilities of the chain accidents. The above considerations may help us to take the most effective measures at the minimum cost as well as prevent some potentially dangerous chain reactions so as to re- duce human casualty and material losses.