基于演化博弈理论的人际谣言传播仿真模型研究

Study on Rumor Spreading Model Based on Evolution Game

利用博弈理论研究了谣言实现的社会机制。引入了谣言重要性和模糊性等参数建立了个体间的沟通函数,以此为基础利用演化博弈机制实现了一个人际谣言传播的Agent仿真模型。仿真结果表明:与人们切身利益相关的谣言会改变个体的预期收益使个体错误地选择相信谣言,尽管相信谣言会带来实际的损失;由于此行为存在一定风险,实际上个体相信谣言与否除了取决于自身预期收益的判断,还取决于他人的选择。利用演化博弈对谣言传播机理的研究为谣言传播的创新研究提供了新思路和新方法。

The social mechanisms of rumor fulfilling were focused on based on evolution game.Communication functions between individuals were given by describing pertinence and faintness of rumor.Based on these definitions,an agent simulation model of rumor propagation was realized.Analysis of this model leads to conclusions： Rumors related to people＇s personal interests win acceptance through changing people＇s expected payoffs,misleading people to the belief that acceptance of the rumor would beneficially outperform rejection of it.But because it is risky to believe rumors,people make their decision whether to believe a rumor or not by referring to other people＇s choices.Study on mechanisms of rumor spreading based on evolution game offers innovative research of rumor spreading new means.