基于层次分析法的世博会经济影晌力的定量评估

A Quantitative Assessment of Economic Impact of the World Expo held in Shanghai based on Analytic Hierarchy Process

世博会影响的评估往往是定性的,定量评估的很少。本文选取层次分析法得到子准则层6个具体经济指标对目标层（经济影响力）的组合权重,以世博会带动的上海市的经济增量对经济增长的平均贡献率作为指标的计算准则,最后,利用组合权重,将各指标的平均贡献率加权求和,得到世博会承办至结束期间对上海经济的影响力。

Previous studies about the assessment of the World Expo＇s impact are usually qualitative not quantitative.This paper took advantage of the Analytic Hierarchy Process（AHP） to make a quantitative assessment of economic impact of the World Expo held in Shanghai.Six targets including infrastructure construction,tourism,scientific technologies,employment,government receipts and several other industry development were selected to institute the AHP system,then combination weights were calculated.We adopted the average contribution rates to do the non-dimensional indicators of treatment to research every target and estimated the economic impact with the weight sum.