通货膨胀与房地产价格对实体经济的冲击影响-基于不同货币政策规则的DSGE模型分析

Impacts of Inflation and Real Estate Prices on Real Economy—An Analysis Based on the DSGE Model of Different Monetary Policy Rules

运用DSGE模型,引入价格粘性与信贷约束,分析不同货币政策规则、通货膨胀以及房地产价格对实体经济的冲击影响,其结果提示:(1)当紧缩性货币政策冲击发生时,产出、消费需求、投资和企业借贷水平都会出现一定程度的回落,但考虑房地产价格后的货币政策对实体经济的冲击影响相对较弱;(2)货币当局若实施扩展泰勒规则的货币政策(考虑房地产价格因素),通胀冲击对实体经济的影响就会变得较为有利,而且房地产价格的适度回落将有利于实体经济的健康、稳定发展。责是之故,宏观当局应实施遵循扩展泰勒规则的货币政策(考虑房地产价格因素),保持相对温和的通胀水平,防止房地产市场价格的剧烈波动,有效规避潜在金融风险对实体经济的冲击影响;与此同时,宏观当局应充分关注各类实体经济变量受冲击影响的差异性和复杂性,选择最佳时机推出合意的宏观调控措施。

This paper tries to apply the DSGE model,while introducing sticky prices and credit constraints,to analyze impacts of different monetary policy rules,inflation and real estate prices on the real economy.The results suggest:(1) When the tightening monetary policy shocks once occur,the output,consumptive demand,investment and credit lending will show a certain degree of decline.And if the monetary policy takes consideration of the real estate price,the shocks on the real economy will be relatively weak.(2) If the expansive Taylor rule(taking the real estate price factor into account) is implemented,the impact of inflation on the real economy will become more favorable.At the same time,the modest declining of the real estate price will help the real economy to sustain healthy and stable development.So the macro-authority should implement the monetary policy dominated by the expansive Taylor rule,remain relatively modest inflation and prevent the real estate market price volatility so as to effectively circumvent the potential impact of financial risk on the real economy.Finally the authorities should focus on shock differences and complexities of all kinds of macro-economic variables and find an optimal instant to introduce desirable macro-controlled measures.