后危机时代我国通货膨胀的成因--基于月度数据的实证分析

The Inflation in China after the Financial Crisis—A Positive Analysis Based on Relevant Monthly Data

金融危机过后,在前期宽松政策的刺激之下,我国呈现出高增长、高通胀的局面。针对这一状况,通过选取月度数据进行实证分析的结果表明:通胀预期(可以用CPI滞后项来表示)对CPI的影响是非常明显的;大宗商品价格指数是CPI的增长原因,但对CPI的影响是不显著的;M2的月度数据对CPI并没有做出很好的反应;外汇储备的增加成为近年来影响通胀的显著性因素。基于上述分析结果,管理当局应从各影响变量的传导机制出发,调控其传导环节的影响因素,只有这样,宏观政策才能达到抑制通胀的应有效果。

After the financial crisis,in order to stimulate economy,governments around the world have loosed their monetary and fiscal policies.However,with the recovery of economy,a pressure of inflation is gradually increasing,which brings big troubles to those emerging market economies.Under such a background this paper firstly analyzes previous causes of inflation in different episodes since the 1980s,then focuses on finding factors of inflation after the financial crisis by an empirical analysis,and finally tries to put forward some feasible policy suggestions.