摘要
探讨了小水电发电负荷时间序列的相关特性,描述了其与传统用电负荷时间序列的差异,并在此基础上提出了一种针对小水电日发电负荷预测的新型组合预测法。实例仿真证明,该方法能够较好地反映小水电负荷受降水影响的不确定性和在峰谷电价时段波动规律的差异性,对多小水电地区短期负荷预测具有实用价值和参考意义。
Characteristics of typical SHP load time series were discussed and the differences with the load time series of traditional power systems were described.In addition,a new combination forecasting strategy was proposed for daily generation forecasting of SHP.Numerical testing shows that this method can give better considerations of the influence of peak-and-valley electricity rates and uncertain relativity of precipitation information,which has practical and reference value on STLF for regions with abundant SHP.
出处
《能源工程》
2011年第4期20-26,共7页
Energy Engineering
关键词
小水电
发电负荷预测
小波变换
组合预测模型
small hydropower
generation forecasting
wavelet transform
combination forecasting model
