中国对美国纺织品服装出口增长及影响因素分析

Influence factor analysis of China′s textile and apparel export to the United States

利用恒定市场份额模型,对1992年以来我国对美国纺织品服装出口的增长情况分3个阶段进行了分析.结果表明:在不同阶段,贸易规模效应、商品结构效应和竞争力效应对我国对美纺织品服装出口增长的影响变化很大.加入WTO以后,竞争力效应取代贸易规模效应,成为决定我国对美纺织品服装出口增长的最主要因素.2005年配额取消以来,竞争力的主导作用继续加强,而商品结构效应对我国对美出口的贡献一直较小.

Based on the constant market share （CMS）model, China＇s textile and apparel export to the United States since 1992 is analyzed. It concludes that the trade scale factor, competitiveness factor and commodity structure factor which have very different effects on China＇s textile and apparel export to the United States during different periods. After China＇s accession to the WTO, competitiveness factor, instead of trade scale factor, has played a decisive role in China＇s export, and its importance has been increased in the post-quota era. The effect of commodity structure factor has always been very limited.