我国终端能源消费因素分析及实证研究——基于Laspeyres指数分解技术

Factors Analysis and Empirical Study on Energy Consumption in China:Based on Laspeyres Index Decomposition

运用Laspeyres指数完全分解技术对1995—2008年我国六部门的终端能源消费变动进行量化分析,分解出经济增长、产业结构与能源技术进步等因素对能源消费变动的影响效果。研究结果表明:经济增长是我国终端能耗逐年增长的主导因素,其中技术进步的节能潜力要远大于产业结构调整的节能潜力。

This paper quantitatively analyzes the change of energy consumption in China during 1995-2008 by the Laspeyres index decomposition technique,and decomposes and gets the effects of economic growth,indutrial structure and energy technology progress on the change of energy consumption in China.The result shows that the energy-saving effect of technological progress is much larger than that of industrial structure adjustment.