概率积分法参数对预计地表下沉的影响度分析

Analysis of Probability Integral Parameters′ Influence on Predicting Surface Subsidence

地表沉陷预计的常用算法——概率积分法的预计参数及参数间交互作用对变形值不同的影响程度,造成参数选取、反演的不确定性。针对这一问题,采用五元二次正交旋转组合设计,研究了概率积分法中预计参数对地表点最大下沉的影响关系,得出了单因素与两两因素交互作用对地表点最大下沉值的影响规律。研究结果表明:沉陷预计参数中的下沉系数、主要影响角正切、拐点偏移距对预计最大下沉具有显著影响,影响程度排序为:下沉系数>主要影响角正切>拐点偏移距;且q与tanβ、tanβ与S/H的交互作用影响明显。

Different influence degree of parameters of probability integral method for surface subsidence prediction and mutual action on deformation value would cause the uncertain problem of parameter selection and back-analysis.In order to solve the problem,this paper applied secondary orthogonal rotary combined design with 5 factors to researching influence of prediction parameters on surface maximum subsidence.Influence rule of single factor and random double factors on maximum subsidence was obtained.Results showed that subsidence ratio,tangent of main influence angle and inflexion offset were main influence factors of maximum subsidence.The influence degree was listed as： subsidence ratiotangent of main influence angleinflexion offset.Mutual influence of q and tanβ,tanβand S/H was evident.