区域交通运输结构信息熵演变及动力分析

Evolution of Regional Transport Structure Information Entropy and Its Dynamic Analysis

由于影响因素的复杂性,交通运输结构的研究多以简单的比例关系结合定性分析为主,缺乏定量评价的客观依据.本文尝试应用信息熵理论对区域交通运输结构的演变和发展规律进行定量研究.首先,提出交通运输结构信息熵,并构建了交通运输结构的均衡度和优势度指标,用于衡量交通运输结构及其演变规律.在此基础上,运用主成分分析与灰色关联分析相结合的方法,明确了影响交通运输结构变动的主要动力因子,即社会固定资产投资因子、综合因子、人口因子,这些研究为交通运输结构优化决策提供理论依据.最后,以江苏省交通运输结构分析为例,论证了方法的可行性.

Because of the complex influencing factors,the research on transportation structure usually based on a simple combination of qualitative analysis and ratio-based relation,which lacks of objective quantitative evaluation.The paper applies the information entropy theory to quantitatively study the evolution and development law for regional transportation structure.First,the transport structure information entropy is proposed,and a balanced transportation structure and dominance indicators is proposed to measure the structure and evolution law.Based on that,the main driving-force factors are identified by principal component analysis with combination of gray relational method.The driving-force factors are： total investment in fixed assets,comprehensive factor and population.These may provide evidence for structural optimization of transportation decision-making theory.In the final section,Jiangsu province structural analysis is taken as an example to demonstrate the feasibility of the proposed method.