2011～2020年河南省普通高等教育规模发展研究

Research on the scale development of regular higher education in Henan Province from 2011 to 2020

高等教育适龄人口是决定高等教育规模的一个重要参数,通过出生人口数计算适龄人口预测模型和小学入学人口数计算适龄人口预测模型的比较,获取真实、准确的河南省普通高等教育适龄人口参数。依据在校生数和毛入学率两个重要指标衡量河南省普通高等教育规模,并预测未来十年在校学生数量年均增长率控制在11%左右,到2020年河南省高等教育将开始进入普及化阶段。

Population of the right age in higher education is an important parameter to determine the scale of higher education.By comparing the population forecast model from the number of births and the one from the number of primary school-age enrollment,we can get the true and accurate demographic parameters of the higher school-age population in Henan Province.Based on these two important indicators of the number of college students and gross enrollment ration,we can measure the scale of higher education in Henan Province.And we can predict that,if the average growth rate per annum of the population of college students is restricted within11% in the next decade,higher education in Henan Province will begin to enter the stage of the universal by the year 2020.