S型曲线在我国体育预测问题中的应用研究

Application of S curve model in China's fitness club growth forecast

根据全国2002~2009年全国俱乐部数据,比较直线趋势模型、二次曲线模型、三次曲线模型、对数曲线模型和S曲线模型在俱乐部发展数据预测拟合效果的优劣,为相关研究提供合适的预测模型。应用5种预测方法：对全国俱乐部总数、未来5年的总数预测并比较拟合值的绝对误差、平均相对误差绝对值、误差平方和。对全国健身俱乐部发展数量方面,S预测模型相对误差绝对值最小。S预测模型对全国健身俱乐部发展规模变化规律的分析有比较好的适应性和实用性,可以相关管理部门制定的发展政策提供了一定的理论依据,为《全民健身条例》的落实提供科学依据。

Based on the 2002~2009 national club data,compared linear trend club model,secondary curve model,third curve model,the logarithmic curve model and the predicted effect of S curve model in the club＇s development,this study provided the appropriate forecast model for the related researches.Five prediction methods： the national total club;the prediction of total club in next five years;the values of the absolute error;the average relative error absolute value;error sum squares.In the number development of national fitness club,the absolute value of relative error of S prediction model is the smallest.S prediction model has a good adaptability and practicability in analyzing the change law of the national fitness club development scale,it also can provide certain theoretical basis to the relevant departments in carrying out development polices,and provide the scientific basis in implementing the popular fitness regulations.