国际收支风险监测预警研究综述及对我国的启示

Review of Risk Monitor and Early-warning System and Revelation to China

国际金融危机之后,对金融危机风险监测预警体系的研究开始盛行。本文首先综述了风险监测预警研究的计量方法,包括FR模型、KLR模型,以及基于上述模型的研究进展和基于计量方法的研究进展。其次,根据上述研究,对构建我国国际收支风险监测预警体系提出了建议。

After the intemational financial crisis, the research on risk monitor and early-warning system of financial crisis developed rapidly. Firstly, this paper analyzed the econometric method of risk monitor and early-warning system, including FR model, KLR model and other models which based on basic model and new mathematical and econometric method. Seeondly, based on above research, we put forward some suggestion on BOP risk monitor and early-warning system of China.