基于模糊评价与GIOWA算子的技术风险评估方法

Method based on fuzzy evaluation and GIOWA operator for technical risk assessment

将不确定多属性决策方法应用到风险评估当中,给出了一种定性与定量相结合的飞行器型号研制项目技术风险评估方法.采用基于广义导出的有序加权平均(GIOWA,Generally Induced Ordered Weighted Averaging)算子的模糊综合评价系统去处理风险评估中的专家语言信息,通过对风险概率与后果的分别量化并结合风险矩阵确定单个技术风险事件等级,从而进一步获得整个项目的风险状况.结合一个航空研制项目分系统的风险评估实例,阐述了方法的详细实施步骤与实用性,为型号研制过程中技术风险评估工作的开展提供了一种方法.

The purpose was to present a qualitative and quantitative integrated approach to assess technical risk in aircraft type development project, with multiple attribute decision making methods introduced into it. A fuzzy syntheses evaluating system based on the generally induced ordered weighted averaging （GIOWA） operator was adopted to aggregate the fuzzy linguistic evaluating information used in risk assessment. By quantifying the possibility and consequence respectively, as well as employing risk matrix, the rank of each technical risk scenario was determined, and the whole project＇s risk status was evaluated. Finally, a technical risk assessment example for aircraft development project was analyzed to illustrate detailed steps and feasibility of the method given above. It can provide an approach for technical risk assessment in the process of aircraft type development.