北方浅层地下水超采区地下水预测模型

Research of Groundwater Prediction Model in Shallow Groundwater Over-Exploitation Zone in the Northern Area

针对北方地区地下水动态特征,选定河北省大清河地下水系统的大沙河-磁河冲洪积扇孔隙地下水系统小区作为研究区。研究区地下水动态主要受降水影响,年内变化较大,根据这一特点,利用神经网络等工具建立了研究区浅层地下水分月地下水预测模型。模型采用1991年-2000年数据进行参数率定,采用2001年-2005年数据对模型进行了验证。通过该模型的建立,解决了北方地下水预测中预测精度差、模型不稳定的难题,为水资源管理提供了科学依据,为其他类似地区地下水动态预测奠定了坚实的基础。

A series of water environment problems were irritated by long-term groundwater over-exploitation in the northern area. Dasha River-Ci River groundwater system in Daqing river system of Hebei Province was chosen according to groundwater characteristics in the northern area. Groundwater in the study area was mainly affected by precipitation, so the monthly prediction model of shallow groundwater in the over-exploitation zone was built using the neural network tool. Model parameters were calibrated with the data of 1991-2000,and verified with the data of 2001-2005. It provides a scientific basis for water resources management and a great example for groundwater dynamic prediction in other similar regions.