中国出口增长的就业效应:基于CGE模型的分析

Effects of Chinese Export Growth on Employment:a CGE Model Analysis

本文通过构建一个具有中国劳动就业结构特征的CGE模型,以2008年下半年国际金融危机以来全球经济增长变化和中国实施经济刺激计划为背景,设计不同的情景方案,模拟分析了中国出口变化对劳动就业的影响效应。结果显示:出口增长1个百分点可以实现0.088个百分点的非农就业增长。但出口就业效应相对于不同的产业部门和就业群体而言具有明显的差异,出口下降将导致纺织、制造业等部门就业人数的显著减少,农民工就业压力明显超过城镇就业。因为出口就业效应显著低于投资就业效应,国际金融危机以来我国劳动就业不仅在数量上经历了从大幅减少到显著增长的突变,同时在结构上也出现了从可贸易部门向非贸易部门的转换。权衡劳动力比较优势利用和产业结构升级,重视就业基数大、出口就业弹性低的服务业部门劳动力吸收能力的提高,实现就业的结构性均衡增长,应成为确保我国未来就业安全的政策方向。

Based on a CGE model characterized by Chinese labor market, a simulation analysis under different scenarios is conducted to show the effects of Chinese export change on labor employment in the context of global economic growth and China＇ s economic stimulus plan due to the international financial crisis since the second half of 2008. The results show that export increase by one percentage leads to non-agricultural employment growth by 0.088 percentage. This effect, however, is also showed to be quite different for industrial sectors and labor groups. The employment pressure for migrant workers is much higher than for urban workers. Because the employment effect of export is lower than that of domestic investment, China has experienced not only a dramatic change in employment number from sharp reduction to significant growth, but also a structural transformation from tradable sectors to non-tradable sectors since the international financial crisis. Rebalancing between labor comparative advantage and industrial structure improvement, increasing labor absorption capacity of service sectors with large employment and low export elasticity, realizing a balanced growth in employment in different sectors, should be important policy options for Chinese future employment security.