基于VAR系统的人口城市化与经济增长关系研究——以上海1978-2009年数据为例

Study Based on VAR Model about Relationship between Population Urbanization and Economic Growth:Based on 1978-2009 Data of Shanghai

本文基于上海市1978-2009年城市化率与实际人均生产总值的相关数据,通过建立向量自回归模型,运用脉冲响应函数法和方差分解方法对上海人口城市化与经济增长的关系进行实证分析。结果显示,上海经济增长对人口城市化的作用相对较强,而城市化的发展对经济增长的促进作用不明显。上海应充分利用举办世博会产生的城市经济效应有利时机,进一步促进城市化与经济增长的协调发展。

Based on the data of urbanization rate and Shanghai real average GDP in 1978-2009, this paper establishes VAR model and uses Impulse Response Function and Variance Decomposition methods to empirically analyze the relationship between population urbanization and economic growth of Shanghai. The result shows that Shanghai＇ s economic growth relatively contributes more to the population urbanization, while the development of urbanization effects the economic growth little. Shanghai should make full use of the favorable opportunity of the city economic effects arising from holding the Expo to further promote the coordinated development of urbanization and economic growth.