摘要
在结合理论模型分析的基础上,以2001年1月至2010年3月国际原油价格和人民币实际有效汇率的月度数据为主要研究样本,采用结构向量自回归(SVAR)模型,实证分析了国际油价波动对人民币实际有效汇率的动态冲击效应。研究结果表明:国际油价上涨对人民币实际有效汇率产生了负向影响,但冲击后的有效汇率在回归到零值后会越过零值重新回到升值的趋势中;国际油价上涨对CPI有显著的正向影响,国际油价上涨是推高CPI的一个重要因素;国际油价上涨引起了工业增加值增长率的波动;国际油价上涨对出口增长率的影响表现出J曲线的特征。
Based on the analysis of the theoretical model, this paper selects the monthly data from January 2001 to March 2010 of international crude oil prices and RMB exchange rates as the main research sample, uses structural vector auto-regressive （SVAR） model to analyze the dynamic effects of the international oil prices on real effective exchange rate of RMB. The results show that the international oil prices had a negative effect on real effective exchange rate of RMB, but the impact of effective exchange rate came back to the upward trend after retuming to zero and over zero, international prices rise had a significant positive influence on the CPI, international oil prices was one of the important factors pushed CPI, international oil prices caused the industrial added value fluctuation, international oil prices shocked export growth to perform the characteristic of J curve.
出处
《国际贸易问题》
CSSCI
北大核心
2011年第9期118-129,共12页
Journal of International Trade
基金
辽宁省教育厅人文社科基金项目(2009JD37)的资助
