日本政府投资、民间投资和产业资本收益之间关系的实证分析

An Empirical Analysis on the Interactions between Public Investment,Private Investment and Industrial Capital Return

本文基于日本的统计数据,利用VAR模型和"格兰杰因果关系"检验方法,研究政府部门投资、民间部门投资和全产业总资本收益率之间的相互作用。VAR模型分析表明,政府投资对民间投资的影响比较大,两者对全产业总资本收益率的影响都很大且政府投资的影响远远大于民间投资,这些影响关系都较复杂。"格兰杰因果关系"检验表明,政府投资变化是民间投资变化的"格兰杰原因",两者分别是全产业总资本收益率变化的"格兰杰原因",而这些变量之间不存在相反方向的"格兰杰因果关系"。

This paper explores the interactions between public - sector investment, private - sector investment and rate of return on total industrial capital in Japan. The empirical study conducts Granger - causality tests based on VAR models. Specifically, VAR analysis indicates that public investment excerts large influences on private investment. Both public and private investment have effects on the rate of return, while the former has more explanatory power. Granger - causality tests show that 1 ） there exists a uni - directional Granger - causal relationship running from public investment to private investment; and 2） both of the two types of investment uni - directionally Granger - causes the rate of return on total industrial capital.