台风过程数值模拟中4种初值化方案对比分析

Comparative Analysis of Four Initialization Schemes in Typhoon Numerical Simulation

了解、比较并改善各种Bogus技术,对台风数值模拟和数值预报具有重要意义。介绍了4种不同的台风初值化方案:基于四维变分资料同化原理的BDA方案、MM5模式附带的Bogus方案、王国民的Bogus方案,以及广州热带海洋所业务上曾使用的Bogus方案,具体台风个例,对这几种方案在台风数值模拟中所起的作用,进行对比讨论。数值试验的结果表明:BDA方案较其他方案在台风的路径模拟和强度模拟方面均有较大的优势。

In recent years,several Bogus schemes have been put forward to improve the initial thermodynamic and circumfluent structures of typhoons,which performed well in typhoon numerical forecasting.It has great significance for typhoon numerical simulation and forecasting to understand,compare,and improve various Bogus techniques.An introduction is made to four initialization schemes of typhoons,which include the Bogus data assimilation scheme（BDA）based on four dimensional variational data assimilation（4DVAR）,the incidental Bogus scheme of MM5,the Bogus scheme advanced by Wang Guomin,and one used by the Institute of Tropical and Marine Meteorology in Guangzhou,and then the effects of these models in typhoon numerical forecasting are compared.The results show that the BDA scheme is obviously better for improving both typhoon track and intensity simulations.