摘要
中国车市2011年1—5月出现大幅度回落,有专家误判"车市进入本次波动收缩期",因此对完成"十二五"汽车规划信心动荡。文章为解决上述"认识误区",采用"车市波动分析法"这一创新成果,分析研究了有关数据和波动图波形走势,判定当前车市处于两峰之间的"波谷",处于本次波动"扩张后期",还没有进入"收缩期"。2011年车市处于中下等市场,2011年下半年将有所回升,年增长率接近10%(与GDP基本同步或稍高)。对"十二五"期间车市发展持审慎乐观态度。
Automotive market in China had fallen back from Jan to May of 2011.Some experts made misjudgment that auto market entered shrinkage period of the fluctuation.And they don＇t have confidence in accomplishing the automotive plan during the Twelfth Five-Year.In order to solve the misunderstanding,the market fluctuation method is adopted,related data and fluctuation diagram waveform is analyzed.It is judged that current auto market is in the wave trough between wave crests.It is in the late expanding period,and has not entered the shrinkage period.Auto market of 2011 is below the medium,the second half year would also be recovered.The annual growth rate is near 10%（synchronous with GDP or a little high）.The auto market during the Twelfth Five-Year is prudential and optimistic.
出处
《汽车工程师》
2011年第7期13-16,共4页
Automotive Engineer
关键词
车市波动
第6次扩张期
扩张后期
波谷
Automotive market fluctuation
6th expanding period
Late expanding period
Wave trough between wave crests
