基于分位数回归的我国居民边际储蓄倾向动态研究

Dynamic Study on the Marginal Savings Propensity to Chinese Residents Based on Quantile Regression

凯恩斯主义的绝对收入假说提出了边际储蓄倾向递增规律.然而,运用传统的普通最小二乘法进行回归分析所得到的边际储蓄倾向为一常数,并不能展现边际储蓄倾向随收入水平变化的关系.以我国1978—2009年间城乡居民人均收入和人均储蓄数据为样本,运用分位数回归方法对各收入水平下的边际储蓄倾向进行估计.实证结果表明,边际储蓄倾向递增规律在我国城乡居民储蓄行为中也是适用的.

The law of increasing marginal propensity to savings was firstly raised in Keynesian＇s absolute income hypothesis.The marginal propensity to savings obtained from regression analysis by using ordinary least squares is a constant,so it cannot show the dynamic relationship between the marginal propensity to savings and income.Based on the average income and saving of Chinese urban and rural residents from 1978 to 2009,the marginal propensity to savings under different income levels using quantile regression was estimated.The empirical result shows that the law of increasing marginal propensity to savings is appropriate in the saving behavior of Chinese urban and rural residents.