江苏省肺结核流行状况GIS空间分析

Spatial analysis of tuberculosis epidemic in Jiangsu province based on Geographic Information System

目的利用地理信息系统(Geographic Information System,GIS)技术探讨2003-2009年江苏省肺结核发病率的空间分布模式和特征,研究江苏省肺结核发病流行状况和趋势,为肺结核的有效防控提供科学依据。方法根据江苏省2003-2009年肺结核发病资料建立数据库,在ArcGIS 9.3软件中与江苏省县级行政区划的数字地图进行关联,对肺结核疫情进行空间显示和分析。结果肺结核发病地图和Moran s I空间自相关分析均显示2008-2009年结核病发病存在空间聚集性(I=0.233,P=0.060);而2003-2007年发病不存在空间聚集(I=0.176,P=0.060);LocalMoran’s I空间自相关分析分别指出了各年段肺结核发病的"正热点"和"负热点"区域;趋势面分析显示2003-2007年肺结核发病自南向北方向呈略微下降趋势,东西方向趋势平缓;2008-2009年肺结核发病自西向东方向呈先下降后上升的明显改变趋势,而自南向北方向呈现不明显的先上升后下降趋势;空间回归分析显示肺结核发病率与纬度相关,随着纬度的递增而降低(t=-2.622,P=0.011);与经度的相关性无统计学意义(t=-1.561,P=0.123)。结论江苏省肺结核发病具有明显的地域分布规律,相关部门应该针对不同区域制定相应的防控措施。

Objective To explore the tuberculosis spatial distribution patterns and characteristics in Jiangsu province in 2003 -2009 with Geographic Information System and to provide scientific evidence for making control strategy. Methods The data on tuberculosis incidence in Jiangsu province from 2003 through 2009 were collected and linked to the digital map at administrative county level with ArcGIS 9. 3 software for spatial analysis. Results The incidence maps of tuberculosis and Moran＇ s spatial autocorrelation analysis showed that the spatial aggregation existed in tuberculosis epidemic during 2008 - 2009 （ Moran＇ s index = 0. 233, P = 0. 016 ） but did not exist during 2003 - 2007 （ Moran＇ s index = 0. 176, P = 0. 06）. Local Moran＇ s I spatial antocorrelation analysis pointed out the ＂positive high incidence region＂ and the ＂negative high incidence region＂ of tuberculosis during 2003 -2009. Trend analysis showed that from 2003 through 2007, the tuberculosis incidence declined slightly from south to north, but the trend was not obvious from east to west. During 2008 -2009, the tuberculosis incidence increased obviously first, then decreased from west to east, and also increased and then decreased from south to north,but the trend was ont obvious. Spatial regression analyses showed that the tuberculosis incidence was correlated to latitude, which become lower with the increasing of latitude （ t = - 2. 622, P = 0. 011 ）. But the correlation with longitude had no statistical significance（ t = - 1. 561, P = 0. 123 ）. Conclusion The incidence of tuberculosis is of obviously geographical distribution in Jiangsu province. The corresponding prevention measeures should be made according to the geographical distribution.