政治与汇率:人民币升值的政治经济学分析

Politics and Exchange Rate: The Political Economy Analysis of RMB Appreciation

从国际政治经济学的角度对人民币汇率升值的争论进行解释或许更具有说服力。以此为分析视角,作者构建了以人民币对各国货币的汇率为被解释变量,以包括国际通货膨胀、经常账户余额以及外汇储备在内的经济变量为控制变量,以包括利益集团、选举周期、政党派系以及美国两院议案等在内的政治变量为主要解释变量的面板数据变系数模型,采用美国、日本、英国、德国和法国五个国家1995-2009年的相关数据进行实证分析,主要得出以下结论:首先,国际政治力量的干预使得人民币汇率变动有悖于经济运行的基本现实,因而存在着单向升值的悖论。其次,美国在人民币升值的进程中发挥着主导作用,其参众两院针对人民币汇率而提出的议案是人民币升值的直接导火线。最后,包括利益集团、选举周期和政党派系等因素在内的国际政治力量确实促进了人民币汇率的升值,同时也加快了人民币升值的进程。

It may be more persuasive to explain the RMB appreciation from the perspective of international political economy. This paper builds a variable coefficient-panel data model with RMB exchange rate as the explained variable,the economic factors including international inflation rate,current account net and international reserves as control variables, and the political factors including interest group,election cycle,party faction and congressional bills as main explanatory variables. Based on an empirical study with data of U.S., Japan,U.K.,Germany and France from 1995 to 2009,the author finds out that international political strength prevents RMB from changing with economic fundamentals,thus a paradox existed in RMB one-way appreciation; the U.S. has played a leading role in the appreciation of RMB,and the congressional bills aimed at RMB exchange rate are the blasting fuse in the appreciation; the international political strength,such as interest group,election cycle,and party faction,has made RMB appreciate and sped up its course.