沿海港口通航环境热带气旋灾害预评估模型研究

Pre-assessment Model of Tropical Cyclone Disaster on Navigation Environment of Costal Port

热带气旋对港口通航环境的影响形式和强度与其它承灾体有所区别。文中选取热带气旋风场、降雨、浪场以及港口潜在的易损性和港口防台水平为指标,利用层次分析法和专家聚合法建立了中国沿海港口通航环境热带气旋灾害影响预评估模型。利用该模型选取影响香港港的热带气旋个例进行了模拟,该模型选取的指标均为灾前可预报指标,港口以及相关部门可以根据模型得出的灾前评估结果制定灾前应急计划和部署搜救应急力量。

There are differences between the hazard-affected of tropical cyclone in navigation environment and others.In this paper,tropical cyclone＇s wind,rainfall,wave,port potential vulnerability and the level of against typhoon are chosen as evaluation index to build the evaluation model of tropical cyclone disaster on navigation environment of costal port,using AHP and an algorithm to aggregate thelinguistic opinions of a homogeneous/heterogeneous group of experts.Some tropical cyclone which affect Hong Kong port are chosen as examples to do the experimental using this model.The relevant departments can formulate the emergency plan and deployment the emergency rescue accroding to the evaluation results of the model,because the evaluation index can be forecasted.