基于小波变换的开都河径流量多时间尺度分析

Multiple Time Scales Analysis on Annual Runoff of Kaidu River Based on Wavelet Transform

以开都河大山口站1956—2006年的年径流量资料为例,利用Morlet小波变换对其水文序列的多时间尺度演变特性进行了分析,并预测了开都河2006年以后的年径流量变化趋势。结果表明:开都河存在6 a、10 a、15 a和38 a等4个主周期,其中38 a和10 a分别为第一和第二主周期;2006年后的未来几年内开都河将处于偏枯期。

Taking the process of 51 years annual runoff from 1956 to 2006 of Dashankou Hydrologic Station for an example,this paper analyzed the multiple time scales variation characteristics of hydrological series based on Morlet wavelet transform and forecasted the variation trend of annual runoff of Kaidu River since 2006.The results show that the Kaidu River has four main periods of runoff,which are 6-year,10-year,15-year and 38-year.And,the first and second main periods of runoff are 38-year and 10-year respectively.In the next a few years since 2006,the runoff of Kaidu River will be in low flow period.