我国土地出让收入增长的影响因素与地区差异——基于空间动态面板模型的实证研究

Influencing Factors and Regional Disparity of Growth of China's Land Remise Income——An Empirical Study Based on Dynamic Model of Spatial Panel Data

利用1999～2008年的省级面板数据和空间动态面板广义矩(GMM)估计方法,本文考察了我国各地区土地出让收入增长的影响因素和地区差异。研究发现,各地方政府的土地出让收入间存在横向竞争,土地出让收入在全国范围内呈现一定的收敛性。财政分权程度、经济发展水平和市场化水平是影响各地土地出让收入增长的主要因素,并且其影响程度和方向呈现明显的地区差异。具体而言,东部地区的横向竞争程度高于全国平均水平和中西部地区。财政分权和经济发展水平对东部地区土地出让收入增长的影响不显著,市场化水平的影响显著为正。而财政分权对中西部地区土地出让收入增长的影响显著为负,经济发展水平的影响显著为正,市场化水平的影响不显著。

This paper investigates the influencing factors and regional disparities of growth of china＇s land remise income using provincial panel data from 1999 to 2008 and dynamic spatial panel method of general moment （GMM）. This paper argues that horizontal competition exists among local governments and land remise income is convergent in the whole country. The degree of fiscal decentralization, level of economic development and degree of marketization constitute the main factors of the growth of local governments＇ land remise income; and the extent and direction of the effects vary dis- tinctly among different regions. To be specific, the extent of the horizontal competition in east China is greater than that in the midwest. In east China, fiscal decentralization and level of economic development do not have significant effect on the growth of land remise income, while the impact of marketization level turns out to be positive ; and the impact is statistical- ly significant. In midwest China, the impact of fiscal decentralization on the growth of land remise income is significantly negative, while level of economic development has a significant positive impact and level of marketization does not have a significant effect.