中美主要争议问题前景探析

The Analyses of the Prospect of the Main Sino-US Controversial Issues

长久以来,中美之间的矛盾冲突几度成为国际社会和舆论关注的焦点,从霍尔斯蒂关于战争与和平的解释模式看,这些争议问题可能导致中美关系状态出现三种结果:出现危机(包括偶发武力冲突)、滑入大规模战争、妥协并创建新的协调机制。而这三种结果出现的概率则会因中美争议问题的性质差异、双方调停策略完备与否和决策者态度的偏好而各异。通过分析,不难发现,中美之间所有争议问题可能导致的三种结果中,双方创建新协调机制、维持无战事状态的概率最大,唯有关于"台湾问题"的争议最有可能引发双方危机,甚或爆发战争,但总体而言导致这种结果的可能性依然较小。

for a long time, the conflicts between China and America have become the focus of the international society. According to Holsti＇s explanation of war and peace, these Controversial issues may lead to three possibilities between China and America crises （including Accidental Armed conflicts）, Large-scale war or compromise and the establishment of new Coordination mechanism. The Probability of the three results will be differed by the property of the issue, the Completeness of the mediation policy and the attitude of the Decision-makers. After analysis, it is not difficult to find that among all the results of the Controversial issues between China and America, to build a new Coordination mechanism and maintain the no war state is of the greatest possibility. Only the conflict about Taiwan may lead to crisis or even war, but the Overall possibility of this result is Still less likely.