中国财政风险非参数预警系统构建与实证分析——基于风险因子和AHP法的研究

The Construction and Empirical Analysis of Nonparametric Early-Warning System of Fiscal Risks

以风险因子法和AHP作为非参数模型预警方法,从预警指标体系的设立、预警指标数据的指数化处理、权重的确定、风险评价函数的建立以及预警信号系统的设计等五个方面构建了中国财政风险非参数预警系统,并对中国财政风险进行了实证分析。结果表明,虽然1998—2008年中中国财政的总体风险一直处于"轻警"状态,但进入2009年之后,外部国际金融危机的冲击和内部财政政策的转型使得财政运行的外部和内部环境都发生了改变,未来中国财政风险有大幅上升的可能性。为此,政府应该对财政风险状况的变化给予高度关注,并通过制定防范和化解财政风险的一系列预案和措施,确保财政稳定运行,实现经济平稳较快发展。

The paper constructs the nonparametric early-warning system of fiscal risks from five aspects such as the establishment of early-warning indexes, the indicator processing of early-warning index data, the determine of weight, the build of risk function, and the design of early-warning signal system, which is based on the risk factor method and AHP. Then, the paper conducts the empirical analysis of our country＇s fiscal risks by using the early-warning system. The results show that our country＇s fiscal risks have been in slight warning station during the period from 1998 to 2008, but our country＇s fiscal risks will have the great possibility of increasing after 2009. So, the government should pay great attention to the changes in our country＇s fiscal risks, and draw up a series of plans and measures for the prevention of fiscal risks, so as to ensure the stable operation of finance and achieve the stable and rapid development of economic in our country.